tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-58166984338880329142012-02-15T23:43:43.621-08:00Ciitizennoreply@blogger.comBlogger221100tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5816698433888032914.post-53941187516288318272010-10-31T13:31:00.000-07:002010-10-31T13:38:40.706-07:00

First the Republican's: It will be interesting to see some meaningful proposals for addressing our dismal GDP growth and high unemployment.  If they think they have a winning strategy by simply continuing to attack the president, I think they are in for a rude awakening in 2 years.  I'd like to hear some serious proposals addressing increasing the demand in this country for goods and services,

Ciitizennoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5816698433888032914.post-26276954099871339042010-10-31T13:04:00.000-07:002010-10-31T13:04:28.903-07:00

For what it's worth, my unscientific and non-statistically-valid poll of independents in my area (mostly at work) indicates that they are very disappointed with Obama's handling of the banks. My read on this is that he's much too concerned about hurting the banks than he is about the continuing suffering of homeowners.  Yes, there are homeowners that overreached what they could afford.  But,

Ciitizennoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5816698433888032914.post-46863902902840935802010-09-19T10:54:00.000-07:002010-09-19T10:54:20.211-07:00

I'm concerned when I hear smart people like Powell talk about the need for jobs and the need to cut the deficit (in the same sentence). I'll explain why.  Let's consider the main Economic challenges facing the country.  They can be categorized as follows: securitization (banking), the housing market, unemployment, lack of meaningful growth (GDP), fear of deficits.  Yes, there are others that I

Ciitizennoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5816698433888032914.post-13582553451767611262010-09-19T10:20:00.000-07:002010-09-19T10:20:34.347-07:00

Well I'm back to blogging.  I stopped a year ago to focus on a new baby and an increasing work load.  However, I'd like to share some thoughts on our Economic situation and politics

Ciitizennoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5816698433888032914.post-16871774345492177412009-09-20T10:29:00.000-07:002009-09-20T10:59:48.138-07:00

I'm getting very tired of listening to the media "parrot" conservative economists' concerns about the size of the deficit.Without "parroting" economists much smarter than myself, let me say that there is no avoiding considerable deficit spending in the short term without throwing this economy into a depression.In the longer term, when UNEMPLOYMENT eases, we will need to dial back our government

Ciitizennoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5816698433888032914.post-45319468587226830212009-09-20T10:14:00.000-07:002009-09-20T10:53:52.410-07:00

Finally, this topic is getting a little more attention in the press. The facts are clear. We basically have 4 major banks: Wells Fargo, Citi, BOA, and Chase. In another financial crisis, could any of these be allowed to fail without throwing the economy into the dark ages?Is it me? Or, is this just nuts?Shouldn't we work for a situation where we have many, many "athletic" banks that can

Ciitizennoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5816698433888032914.post-29152813263810962072009-06-12T15:13:00.001-07:002009-06-12T17:02:16.019-07:00

I've been very busy and haven't posted for a while, but mortgage rates have me concerned.Yes, they are low based on historic averages, but they are not low enough NOW. As most people know, the price for debt in the T-bond market is determined by inflation expectations. If investors expect the value of the dollar to decrease they demand that Treasury bonds to yield more. Mortgage securities

Ciitizennoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5816698433888032914.post-57697349184937712682009-05-21T12:34:00.000-07:002009-05-21T15:53:44.676-07:00

Brad DeLong's favorite moniker for right-wingers with intellectual laziness is "wingnut".  Indeed, he challenges any intellectual foundations of modern conservatism.However, in the case of Roberts, Professor DeLong is wrong.  John Roberts, in my reasoning, is very much a "constructionist" intellectually.  He definitely approaches from the right, but his arguments are well reasoned.  It's the

Ciitizennoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5816698433888032914.post-43603111954482373862009-05-19T16:13:00.000-07:002009-05-21T15:54:30.351-07:00

This article is a bait and switch! Benn Steil and his Council keep conflating the argument. The stimulus is not about the governemnt spending more on consumption goods in the private sector, as this cock-eye'd paragraph suggestsThe Obama administration and Congress justify the vast new government borrowing and spending by asserting that it constitutes “fiscal stimulus.” Not only would eachdollar

Ciitizennoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5816698433888032914.post-61079770105778594532009-05-19T11:03:00.001-07:002009-05-19T11:17:55.609-07:00

Starting in September of 2007, my company saw it's sales fall off dramatically. It was a very visible indicator of a change in the economy. Mostly, at that time, our customers were pushing contract decisions into 2008. Much of that business never materialized in 2008 due to the unfolding crisis (businesses were "hunkering down") and the slowness in sales has continued with a flat trend. Q1 of

Ciitizennoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5816698433888032914.post-21557943940664530032009-05-18T20:42:00.000-07:002009-05-18T21:23:14.807-07:00

Niall Ferguson continues to hawk his free market snake oil. I think Elizabeth Warren is on the right regulatory track. The financial products market IS broken. We need more regulation on the front end. The productization and resulting demand for CDO's drove the market for sub-prime mortgages. Anyone who thinks consumers drove the sub-prime mortage market is delusional. The CDO market was

Ciitizennoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5816698433888032914.post-6377608087708808062009-05-18T17:11:00.000-07:002009-05-18T18:29:15.553-07:00

Vote No. We shouldn't be modifying the state constitution in response to the worst downturn since the Great Depression. Tax increases are the last thing California needs right now. We should "Cowboy Up" in classic Californina fashion and live with less services for a few years.

Ciitizennoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5816698433888032914.post-89823921402916240822009-05-12T14:20:00.000-07:002009-05-12T14:27:44.157-07:00

So the Times reports that the mortgage cramdown legislation died.  This is such a blatant example of the stranglehold that that banking lobies have on our government.  Moreover, the cramdown double standard is staggering.  Isn't the conversion of bank debt to equity a cram down for the tax payer? Of course it is.  If it's fair for us it should be fair for them. So far, the housing market is

Ciitizennoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5816698433888032914.post-73752807578191368672009-05-12T12:41:00.000-07:002009-05-12T13:56:41.525-07:00

On the same link below, Naill evidently complained that our Fiscal and Monetary policies are at odds.   He really needs to read Brad DeLong (who has very impressive analytical skills).  Read this post from Dr. DeLong.  

Ciitizennoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5816698433888032914.post-80070270018367368082009-05-12T12:27:00.000-07:002009-05-12T12:30:49.413-07:00

If Citi doesn't straighten up and begin to fly right, the government should just buy them!  Citi has a market cap of $17B but has sucked up $400B.  Seems like a no brainer to me.  Read more at Roubini's link

Ciitizennoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5816698433888032914.post-49321460538109490122009-05-05T20:49:00.001-07:002009-05-05T20:49:03.613-07:00

So, while Bernanke is telling us that the banks will be able to raise the additional capital they need, the WSJ says that a survey of BANKS says the worst of the downturn is yet to come!  So on the one hand, the banks argue with the Fed regarding their "grades" on the stress test.  On the other hand, they respond to a Fed survey that the worst is yet to come.  Has anyone in the Fed reconciled the

Ciitizennoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5816698433888032914.post-17209188762082620922009-05-04T18:43:00.001-07:002009-05-04T18:49:04.928-07:00

On my drive home today, I heard one of Robert Reich's collegues at Berkeley (unfortunately, I missed the name) reinforce his point: if the Government is bailing out GM & Chrysler, then they should find a way to do it while preserving jobs! As an example, the speaker tried to draw a parallel with the Edsel! Specifically, that Edsel downsized itself out of business. While this is false, Edsel was

Ciitizennoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5816698433888032914.post-82021380124237041412009-05-03T20:37:00.001-07:002009-05-03T20:37:32.806-07:00

The banks should not be arguing with the Government over the stress tests.  By all accounts, the test scenarios were constructed with pretty rosey growth scenarios.  These banks are exhibiting way too much political power for my liking. 

Ciitizennoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5816698433888032914.post-49364113378831815922009-05-03T19:46:00.001-07:002009-05-03T20:00:16.111-07:00

Wow, I hope President Obama is reading James Kwak and Zephyr Teachout.  Here is a great post on Baseline Scenario by James Kwak discussing how anti-trust laws might be applied to break up the big banks.  A great quote from Teachout is "Economies of scale [of large corporations] might work all too well when it comes to influencing government."   How would this argument be made against other

Ciitizennoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5816698433888032914.post-19392704046102734482009-05-03T17:12:00.001-07:002009-05-03T17:12:39.045-07:00

This article by Henry Bloget reinforces my first post below.  The banks need to be restructured.  "Too big to fail" should mean that these large banks should be too big to exist.  Again, Geithner is too cozy with the banks!

Ciitizennoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5816698433888032914.post-3193934165029722962009-05-03T14:32:00.000-07:002009-05-03T16:07:05.664-07:00

The Auto Bailout Is Going Off Yhe Road: Robert Reich makes a fair point.  If the public is footing the bill for the auto bailouts, why should we accept all the layoffs.  However, while fair, it misses the practicality of the situaiton.  Both GM's and Chrysler's costs are just too high.  The argument can be made that they are selling too many types, the wrong types, etc.  The reality is that jobs

Ciitizennoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5816698433888032914.post-26759882642096200812009-05-03T13:31:00.000-07:002009-05-03T16:07:24.554-07:00

Here's my first post: I like Tim Geithner, but he's just too cozy with the banks. I realize he has a thin line to walk, but the banks are basically turning thier backs on him and his plans.  He needs to find ways to get tough.

Ciitizennoreply@blogger.com0